What's new in AR6?
The JAI team is currently taking a close look at the newly published sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). In particular, the JAI team is analyzing chief differences between AR6 and the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C that was previously released in 2018.
A detailed comparative analysis reveals significant differences and major changes since the last report. In the new AR6, it is striking that scientists are now even clearer in their formulations and conclusions. Yes, climate change is definitely human-made. Yes, we are in a crisis. No, we cannot wait any longer to take radical climate action.
Even hoped-for measures to reduce the impact of climate change will come too late for some regions. Because the Earth’s climate responds to human-induced pollution with some delay, rising sea levels will render some low lying island nations uninhabitable within the next 50 years. Polar sea ice will disappear completely in several summers. Mountain glaciers will keep melting for decades and centuries to come. AR6 notes that many climate impacts are now irreversible.
However, AR6 also shows a pathway to reduce the impacts of the climate crisis and keep warming from going over the climate target of 1.5°C. In addition to reducing CO2 emissions and getting to zero emissions as soon as possible, short lived “climate forcings” also play a decisive role, and their impacts can be addressed. For the first time, an IPCC report devotes an entire chapter to this topic. AR6 notes that the reduction of methane emissions can have a significantly faster impact on the climate than CO2 emissions reductions. In fact, AR6 notes that methane emissions will decide whether or not the climate will heat up by another 0.8°C by the year 2100 or not—a significant amount of warming.
Using a new methodological approach, AR6 also provides insight into the interlinkages between socio-economic equity, societal well-being rather than sole economic growth, and the progression of climate change. Going forward, it will continue to be a priority of JAI to address climate issues—in combination with social well being, global peace, and preserving democracy and the rule of law—in a holistic manner. The new IPCC report clearly shows that one cannot be achieved without the other.