Bosnia and Herzegovina
I. Summary of Conclusions
1. Climate change, particularly severe droughts and flooding, poses an economic crisis over the nation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) despite the proactive measures they have taken to address climate change.
2. BiH is among the 34 most vulnerable nations to climate change in the world, despite not being a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emission.[1]
3. The geography of BiH and its reliance on agriculture and forestry, which contribute 5.6% to the GDP and employ nearly 20% of its workforce, make the country especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change.[2]
4. Rural areas in BiH lack the resources to make the investments needed to mitigate the effects of climate disasters.
5. We recommend that BiH increase investment in rural infrastructure to prevent climate disasters and provide subsidies for insurance to help vulnerable communities rebuild following flooding.
6. BiH has taken inadequate steps to address air pollution or to inform its citizens of the associated health risks and mitigation strategies.
7. We commend BiH for demonstrating dedication to sustainable development; however, further actions are needed to accelerate their transition to a low emission economy.
II. BiH is One of the Most Vulnerable and Heavily Impacted Nations Despite Its Moderate Greenhouse Gas Emissions
8. Low Contribution to Global Emissions: BiH contributes only about a .05% share of total global greenhouse emissions and has a lower per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rate than the European average. The most recent inventory shows that per capita emissions in BiH amounted to approximately 7.38 tons of CO2eq, which is about 15% less than the average of other EU countries in the same year. [3]
9. Climate Reduction Goals: Additionally, BiH has set ambitious climate reduction goals for 2050. BiH aims to a achieve 42.21% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy consumption to 43.62%[4]
10. Emission Intensity of the Economy: However, the greenhouse gas emission intensity of the economy, (the amount of GHG emissions in proportion to BiH’s economic output) is more than four times that of the EU average, indicating high potential for increasing resource efficiency in BiH, especially in the energy sector.[5]
11. Economic Recovery and Low Emission Transition: The key challenge for Bosnia and Herzegovina is balancing the transition to a low emission economy while stimulating their economic recovery, which has been slower than expected despite an influx of post-war international assistance. As BiH is a low-emitting State and has minimal responsibility for global emissions damage, we encourage BiH to adopt an approach that recognizes BiH’s right to develop, supported by appropriate financial and technological transfers as required under the UNFCCC climate regime.
12. Urbanization and Rural Infrastructure Deficiencies: BiH’s urban population is estimated at 80% of the total population as a result of mass war-time migration from rural to urban areas. The depopulation of rural areas has exacerbated existing infrastructural deficiencies. Consequently, the areas most impacted by climate catastrophes lack the resources to adequately address the climate crisis.[6]
III. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
13. Rising Temperatures: Since 1961, average temperatures have increased steadily, with the most dramatic increase occurring over the past 30 years. Average temperatures have increased in the summer months by 1.2°C and by 0.8°C in winter since the 1980s[7]
14. Decreasing Days with Rain with Increased Intensity: While nationwide precipitation patterns have not changed significantly, northern regions have experienced decreases of up to 20% regions during the summer months. Additionally, the number of days per year with rainfall has decreased, but the intensity of rainfall has increased, raising the likelihood of flooding.[8]
15. Increased Severity of Droughts and Floods: Increased temperatures in combination with less frequent precipitation will result in less moisture in the soil. This lack of moisture will potentially increase the frequency and magnitude of drought and create an increased likelihood of severe floods.[9] Such droughts and floods will have human rights implications on the Right to Adequate Food and Clean Water, the Right to Health, and the Right to Life.
16. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: In 2012, BiH experienced a stretch of severe drought which resulted in a decline in agricultural production by approximately 1.65 billion Bosnian Marks (BAM). That year, grain and vegetable yields were reduced by about 70%, and energy production was reduced by about 25%. This drought destroyed about 70% of vegetables and corn in inland areas of the country.[10]
17. Increased Food Price: The increased losses and costs in agricultural production caused by climate change will largely be passed on to consumers. This increase in food price will disproportionately affect vulnerable communities who do not have the budget needed to meet these increasing prices. However, prolonged growing seasons may increase yields in years without droughts or major floods, mitigating some negative impacts on food prices
18. Key Infrastructure Needs: Despite the abundance of water resources in the country, irrigation infrastructure in BiH is very limited, with only 0.65% of arable land irrigated. This has decreased over the past few decades due to war damage, landmines, and lack of maintenance. Furthermore, levees and embankments in rural region are outdated and need repairs. Cleaning existing canals and constructing new ones are required to reduce flood risk and agricultural damage. [11]
19. Coordinated Investment in Climate Finance: BiH should create a working group across the desperate administrative structures to coordinate investment. BiH is open to foreign direct investment but struggles to attract widescale investment because of complex legal/regulatory frameworks and non-transparent business procedures that discourage investment. The complex decentralized administrative framework has led to a fragmentation of climate finance across multiple donors and national institutions. Currently there is no coordinating mechanism to either direct or understand the existing capital in accordance with the plans established in BiH’s 2021 NDC. Creating a working group across the various ministries involved in climate funding would provide better data tracking for climate finance flows and their outcomes. Furthermore, said working group would be better equipped to attract more funding as a unified front than disparate agencies. Finally, this collaborative body would be able to create a more cohesive investment strategy than currently exists.[12]
20. Prioritizing Human Rights in climate Response: BiH should prioritize the protection of human rights when addressing the described climate challenges. This includes identifying key human rights that are at risk, and ensuring that marginalized and vulnerable communities are not excluded from adaptation measures.
IV: Climate Related Displacement
21. Extreme vulnerability to flooding: Approximately 26% of the BiH population is highly vulnerable to climate change induced flood risk. The increasing intensity and variability of rainfall have led to more frequent and intensive floods. These floods have had critical impacts on personal property and essential infrastructure. BiH is ranked third in the world regarding its vulnerability to intense and prolonged rainfall events.[13] Such vulnerability will pose threats to the Right to Life.
22. Disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities: Children, the elderly, persons with disabilities, migrants, and members of the Roma minority are particularly vulnerable to the floods and landslides exacerbated by climate change, because they are more likely to live in hazard-prone areas and often have limited access to information. New residents and transients are often unaware of the risks. In BiH, housing built for internally displaced persons and refugees, especially Roma, are often of poor quality and located in low-lying land areas which are at the greatest risk of flood damages. Furthermore, persons with disabilities are disproportionately affected as they tend to live on the lower floors of buildings.[14]
23. Early warning systems are critical to protect these communities: We recommend that BiH work with stakeholders in these disadvantaged communities to develop an emergency warning system and response plan that are tailored to the needs of these communities.
24. Insurmountable Damages: Following the 2014 flood, small towns like Maglaj, faced reconstruction costs of up to €85 million, while only having an annual budget of just €4 million. Entire villages, such as Željezno Polje, were left abandoned because the average annual income of residents was between 4,000 and 5,000 BAM (€2,500), while the damage faced by residents averaged between 50,000 to 100,000 BAM (€50,000).[15]
25. Climate Exodus: With a lack of resources set aside for disaster relief, many residents were pushed to restart their lives elsewhere. The World Bank estimates that the number of Bosnians living outside the country is nearly half the entire population. In 2014, international news wires wrote that the disaster “triggered the worst exodus since the war.”[16] Further displacement is foreseeable as climate change impacts worsen.
26. Internal Displacement: Displacement in many rural areas was largely internal, as these communities lacked the resources or options to move internationally. Many of these displaced residents were moved frequently before international aid made rebuilding possible and have experienced psychological strain from their displacement. [17]
27. BiH Should Expand Flood Insurance Coverage: Only 14.9 per cent of the estimated losses from the historic 2014 floods were covered by insurance and only one in six citizens in BiH were covered by flood insurance. To drive down the cost of flood insurance, BiH should adopt legislation that both mandates insurance against common natural disasters for all housing and provides subsidies for lower income communities to be able to afford this insurance.[18]
28. BiH Must Increase Support for those Internally Displaced by Climate Change. The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, created in 1998, affirm that internally displaced peoples have the right to basic humanitarian assistance, such as food, medicine, and shelter. Displaced persons also have the right to assistance from competent authorities in voluntary, dignified, and safe return, resettlement, or local integration. When restitution is not possible, the Guiding Principles call for compensation or just reparation. To uphold these rights, we encourage BiH to allocate greater federal funding for natural disasters to better help rural comminates rebuild their lives without having to migrate.[19]
V. Health Impacts of Climate Change
29. BiH’s reliance on coal has created a public health crisis. BiH largely relies on coal and wood for heat and coal for electricity generation during the winter months, leading to some of the most hazardous air pollution in the world.[20] We encourage BiH to transition away from coal to uphold the Right to a Clean, Healthy, and Sustainable Environment.
30. BiH has the fifth-highest mortality rate from air pollution. According to the World Bank estimates, over 3,000 people in the country die prematurely each year from complications related to air pollution, with thousands more suffering from increased respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.[21]
31. The population is not adequately informed of the risks associated with air pollution, According to local officials, air pollution monitoring stations are sometimes out of service, especially in Republika Srpska. The failure to maintain these monitoring stations leave the public uniformed especially in rural areas. Rural station monitors report that they are underfunded and that existing personnel are not trained to maintain stations and report the data. This lack of resources makes it rare to receive a warning to avoid outdoor activities or to limit vehicular transport on bad air days outside the nation’s capital[22]
32. We recommend that information from polluter reporting be made public. While BiH’s laws require major polluters to monitor their own air quality and submit reports to the government, none of this data is publicly available. Making this information available online is critical so that citizens have knowledge of health risks and to further strengthen accountability related to the Right to a Clean, Healthy, and Sustainable Environment.
33. The full health effects of climate change are largely unknown. The decentralized nature of BiH’s government complicates reporting and monitoring. There is no comprehensive system for monitoring diseases and their correlation with climate parameters. We encourage the government to strengthen such monitoring.
34. BiH should create a centralized database to report diseases and their correlation with climate parameters. Better reporting is necessary to fully understand the impact of climate change on the nation’s health. It is difficult to mitigate the impact of climate change on public health until reporting is made easily accessible for researchers and policy makers.
35. Air quality in BiH is also substantially impacted by transboundary air pollution. Because air pollutants travel across borders, BiH’s air quality is also impacted by neighboring countries. The world bank estimates that about 20 percent of the country’s pm2.5 originates from other countries.[23]
36. BiH should explore infringements on the right to a healthy environment of its citizens. The United Nations General Assembly has recognized the Right to a Clean, Healthy, and Sustainable Environment in 2022. BiH should explore the extent of this right and the obligations of other States to protect this right in the context of transboundary pollution.[24]
VI. BiH’s commitment to sustainable development is a promising start but must go further
37. We commend BiH for joining the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) in 2023.[25]
38. We commend BiH for joining the Global Methane Pledge in 2021 and committing to contribute to a collective effort to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030.[26]
39. We commend BiH for ratifying the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.[27]
40. We Commend BiH for being among the first countries to ratify the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2017.[28]
41. We commend BiH for expressing its determination to align with the European Union’s goals for energy transition and climate neutrality by 2050 by signing the Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans.[29]
42. BiH has taken two important steps in their National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Firstly, pledging to build no new coal or gas plants marks an important shift away from the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels. Secondly, BiH has begun to plan for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by preparing for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme by 2026.[30]
43. However, BiH has created no clear plan for the future of its existing coal plants. In the NECP, BiH acknowledges that two facilities Tuzla 4 and Kakanj 5 will continue to operate beyond the lifetime allowed under the Large Combustion Plants Directive. Furthermore, the plan contains no reference to any investment in pollution control technology, suggesting they plan to continue operating at their current alarming polluting levels. Recent reports show that in 2022, sulphur dioxide emissions from these coal plants surpassed the allowed limit under the Large Combustion Plant Directive by more than eight times.[31]
44. We urge BiH to phase out the use of its existing coal plants. While these plants are still operational in an interim period, BiH should make plans to invest in better pollution control to limit the alarming levels of pollution being emitted by these outdated plants.
45. While no new fossil fuel plants are proposed under the NECP, additional gas interconnectors are still promoted. BiH plans to develop a new gas pipeline for Croatia. Natural gas, while not as harmful as coal, does not align with a sustainable energy future.[32]
46. We urge BiH to phase out the use of its existing coal plants. While these plants are still operational in an interim period, BiH should make plans to invest in better pollution control to limit the alarming levels of pollution being emitted by these outdated plants.
47. We urge that BiH moves away from the development of gas interconnectors. As a fossil fuel, gas will soon begin to be phased out similar to coal. BiH’s limited resources would be better spent investing in green infrastructure that will not become obsolete but remain viable for the future.
[1] Where We Do Work, Bosnia and Herzegovina, United Nations Development Programme, accessed here.
[2] Claudia Strambo, Belma Jahović, Lisa Segnestam, Stockholm Env’t Inst., Climate change and natural hazards in Bosnia and Herzegovina: a gender equality, social equity and poverty reduction lens (2021), accessed here
[3] Id.
[4] Our Partners, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Climate & Clean Air Coalition, accessed here.
[5] Nationally Determined Contribution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, accessed here.
[6] Climate Change Adaptation Bosnia and Herzegovina, United Nations Development Programme, accessed here.
[7] Climate Change Adaptation and Low-emission development strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2013), accessed here.
[8] Id.
[9] Id.
[10] Nationally Determined Contribution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, accessed here.
[11] Climate Change Adaptation and Low-emission development strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, accessed here.
[12] Readiness Proposal With Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Green Climate Fund (2022), accessed here.
[13] Scaling up climate resilient flood risk management in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Green Climate Fund, accessed here.
[14] Claudia Strambo, Belma Jahović, Lisa Segnestam, Stockholm Env’t Inst., Climate change and natural hazards in Bosnia and Herzegovina: a gender equality, social equity and poverty reduction lens (2021), accessed here
[15] Lillo Montalto, Marco Carlone, How climate change triggered a second exodus in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Euro News, accessed here.
[16] Id.
[17] Id.
[18] Managing Risk, How climate finance can help manage risk in Bosnia and Herzegovina, United Nations Development Programme (2019), accessed here.
[19] About internally displaced persons, United Nations Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights, accessed here.
[20] Bosnia and Herzegovina: Deadly Air Pollution Killing Thousands, Human Rights Watch (2022), accessed here.
[21] Id.
[22] Id.
[23] Bosnia and Herzegovina: Deadly Air Pollution Killing Thousands, Human Rights Watch (2022), accessed here.
[24] Climate Change, Displacement, and Human Rights, United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, accessed here.
[25] Our Partners, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Climate & Clean Air Coalition, accessed here.
[26] Id.
[27] Bosnia and Herzegovina: Deadly Air Pollution Killing Thousands, Human Rights Watch (2022), accessed here.
[28] Our Partners, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Climate & Clean Air Coalition, accessed here.
[29] Id.
[30] Bosnia and Herzegovina National Renewable Energy Action Plan (Draft), Energy Community, accessed here.
[31] Barbora Poyner, Secretariat launches dispute settlement procedure against Bosnia and Herzegovina for breaching Large Combustion Plants Directive in the case of Tuzla 4 and Kakanj 5 (2022), Energy Community, accessed here.
[32] Id.
Link on the United Nations System
Universal Periodic Review Fourth Cycle - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Reference Documents on the United Nations System